Yesterday's approval of a second €130bn bail out package for Greece by euro area finance ministers has put the country's near term disorderly default concerns off the markets agenda at least for the moment. This will give time to digest euro area flash PMI data for February released today. The expected improvement in the PMI surveys, at least for 'core' members such as France and Germany, will be consistent with those countries avoiding recession. We forecast the euro area flash PMI estimate in manufacturing to rise to 49.4 from 48.8 in January, its highest level since July of last year. The services survey is also anticipated to show a slight improvement to 50.6 from 50.4.
In the UK, we look for the release of the MPC minutes to provide some insight into the voting patterns behind the additional £50bn in QE implemented this month. The decision is expect to be unanimous, but any dissent in terms of quantity might provide some insight into the MPC's likelihood of further QE down the line.
Later in the day, release of US existing home sales are likely to show further improvement to 4.65m in January from 4.61m saar in December. Recent data has been pointing to a gradual improvement in the US housing market, hitherto one of the laggards in the overall economic recovery.
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